World Cup Countdown (Part One)

This week sees the start of my World Cup Countdown, starting with Group A:

On the face of it this Group ought to be decided when the two European countries meet in Dortmund on June 14^th. But that would be to overlook and underestimate the two other nations, something that historically is perilous.

The opening fixture in recent tournaments has been something of a banana skin. In 1990 Argentina succumbed 1 – 0 to Cameroon, 1994 saw Germany barely squeeze past Bolivia by the same scoreline, Brazil beat Scotland 2 – 1 four years later whilst France set the tone for their whole tournament by losing to Senegal in 2002. This time round, the hosts take on Costa Rica, a far more difficult fixture on paper than any of their predecessors encountered.

Germany have not been at their best over the past four years. It is now a well documented fact that since they won 1 – 0 in the final match at Wembley they have lost every encounter with one of the top – ranked nations yet have found the lesser nations somewhat easier, as their 4 – 1 win over the USA and this weekends 7 – 0 win over Luxembourg show. Their last poor performance was in Florence when the Azurri were three goals to the good inside the opening quarter of an hour, something that laid Klinsmann open to a fair amount of media criticism. That said, this is the World Cup and the Germans have an enviable record. They last failed to reach the Quarter Finals nearly seventy years ago in 1938. Since then, they have won the tournament three times and lost in the final three times. The parallels between four years ago and this summer are uncanny, with the Nationalmeinschaft being ridiculed in their own land as the poorest team since records were started and yet they should cruise through this Group. The English media will no doubt focus on the team captain, Michael Ballack, following his move to Chelsea and on Arsenal keeper, Jens Lehmann. Yet is up front that perhaps the focus should be on the forward line where they seem to have most problems. Much will rest on the shoulders of Miroslav Klose, scorer of 25 goals domestically this season. It is likely that he will complete the strikeforce with Lukas Podolski, another Polish born member of the squad, but it is Ballack who they will rely on for their inspiration.

Poland have a less glorious past to live up to. The third places of 1974 and 1982 seem distant memories and the current squad are unlikely to threaten to emulate their predecessors. They should however improve on the shambles of four years ago that saw them thrashed by Portugal and lose to South Korea meaning they returned home at the end of the Group stages with only a meaningless win over the USA under their belts. Familiar to England from the Qualifiers, they seemed on track to win the Group after the Northern Ireland debacle only to fail by losing at Old Trafford. Recent friendlies are hardly inspiring, including defeats to the USA and Lithuania. Much of the goalscoring pressure will rest on the shoulders of Maciej Zurawski of Celtic and Miroslaw Szymkowiak of Trabzonspor. Their aim should be for second place where they will qualify for Round Two and their probable exit at the hands of England or Sweden.

Costa Rica have played and lost to Germany and Poland on each occasion the teams have met, indicative of the previous strengths of the two rather than the Costa Ricans weakness. The Central Americans were eliminated four years ago on Goal Difference, largely due to a 5 – 2 defeat to Brazil but coupled with a failure to score a hatful against China. These could be their failings ago, a susceptibility to concede regularly without scoring in the same quantities at the other end. Only one of their players turns out regularly in Europe these days although Paulo Wanchope had a decent career in England before leaving for a year in Malaga. He is still their main goal threat although Walter Centeno did score for AEK Athens at the Bernabeu and is considered their creative hub.

That Ecuador qualified is a source of amazement considering they picked up so few points on their travels. At the altitude of Quito they were virtually unbeatable but their away form is perhaps the best indicator of their expectations this summer. However, one should never underestimate a nation whose national dish is a soup made from Bulls testicles. Their main goalscorer is known to Southampton fans and hardly worshipped at St Mary’s but Agustin Delgado has a decent record of 29 goals from 67 internationals. Four years ago, they beat Croatia but lost to Mexico and Italy whilst this time round, they must realistically be looking at the Group and be thinking that they can beat Costa Rica and nick a draw against the Poles. However, this may be a tall order as they lost 3 – 0 in Poland last year.

Predicted Results:

Germany	3	-	1	Costa Rica
Ecuador	0	-	2	Poland
Germany	2	-	1	Poland
Costa Rica	1	-	1	Ecuador
Poland	2	-	0	Costa Rica
Ecuador	0	-	3	Germany

Predicted Table:

	Pl.	W	D	L	F	A	GD	Pts.
Germany	3	3	0	0	8	2	+ 6	9
Poland	3	2	0	1	5	2	+ 3	6
Costa Rica	3	0	1	2	2	6	- 4	1
Ecuador	3	0	1	2	1	6	- 5	1

Arsenal Players in the Group:

Jens Lehmann (Germany)

Players that Arsenal should sign:

None

Today's Tunes are from a Chicago band called Leave. The quartet have been around for five years, these tracks are heavily influenced by The Byrds but take on a more powerful sound aligning them to the Paisley Underground of the early to mid - 1980's, reminiscent of early REM and The Long Ryders. Taken from their 2005 album I'd Rather Not Say, this is the title track I'd Rather Not Say and Sleep All Day. There are more tracks at their website, here, and there is a Myspace Group, here. Enjoy.